Repeats the November 27th poll with no changes to text.
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TRGDPQ%3DECI poll data
ISTANBUL, Nov 27 (Reuters) – Turkey’s economy is expected to have expanded 5.6% in the third quarter of 2023, thanks to solid domestic demand and consumption, the median of a Reuters poll showed on Monday, while full-year growth was seen at 4.2%.
Forecasts in the Reuters poll of 17 institutions ranged between 4.6% and 6.4% for gross domestic product (GDP) in the quarter.
“We observe from the retail volume index that although there is a weakening compared to the previous quarter, domestic demand is still very strong in the third quarter. The working day effect also contributes to GDP growth during this period,” said Serkan Gonencler, chief economist at Gedik Yatirim.
“In the final quarter, we expect GDP growth to slow to around 2.5 to 3% with the slowdown in domestic demand becoming more marked.”
The economy grew 3.8% in the second quarter as Turkey’s central bank implemented a long-term policy of low rates with President Tayyip Erdogan prioritizing growth, exports and investment over lowering inflation, ahead of May elections.
Since June, however, the bank has pivoted and raised its policy rate to 40% from 8.5%. Economists had expected sharply tighter monetary policy after the election to lead to an economic slowdown by the end of the year.
“With monetary policy tightening maintained through most of 2024, annual GDP growth may decline to around 1.5% in 2024,” Gonencler said.
The average estimate of 10 economists for growth in 2023 was 4.2% in the Reuters poll, with forecasts between 4% and 4.5%.
The economy bounced back strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic and grew 5.6% in 2022, driven by strong domestic demand and exports. This was despite a slowdown in growth for its main trading partners due to the Russia-Ukraine war, which hurt exports in the second half of that year.
The Turkish Statistical Institute will release Q3 growth data at 0700 GMT on November 30.
(Reporting by Ezgi Erkoyun; Editing by Jonathan Spicer)
((ezgi.erkoyun@thomsonreuters.com))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.