Economists at Commerzbank are comfortable with their forecast of a moderate appreciation of the Krone for the rest of 2023 and next year.
Norges Bank’s hawkish stance no longer lags behind that of the ECB
Increased risk aversion in the market is weighing on the NOK, but rising oil prices are supporting it. In this regard, the current geopolitical situation is relatively neutral for the Krone, but it is likely to trade volatile in the near future.
Norges Bank does not see the first rate hikes until the end of 2024. At the same time, from the market perspective, the ECB will no longer act decisively enough against the stubbornly high inflation next year aimed at the peripheral countries, so that a risk premium on the Euro is justified. This suggests that the NOK will continue to appreciate against the EUR in 2024.
Source: Commerzbank Research
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