London: The U.S. Dollar The last week of November started on the backfoot and was on track for its biggest monthly decline in a year as traders looked to fresh economic signals in the week ahead to decide the future path of policy rates.
Release of a postponed OPEC+ meeting, federal ReserveA tracked measure of inflation along with consumer prices data. euro zone and Australia Fill out this week’s calendar, which will also see the Reserve Bank’s rate decision new zealand And Chinese PMI data.
The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, fell 0.2% to 103.22 and was headed for a monthly loss of more than 3%, its worst performance in a year.
“The expectation is that US rates have peaked, which suggests it’s time to get out of the dollar,” he said. Colin AsherSenior Economist at Mizuho Bank.
“US equities have completed four consecutive weeks of gains and this is also weighing on safe haven demand for the dollar,” Asher said.
Traders returning from the Thanksgiving recession last weekend kept an eye on the peak in US rates and turned their attention to when the first rate cut might occur, with the release of US core PCE prices this week indicating the Fed’s next rates. But there is a possibility of more signals. step.
Jane Foley said, “While CPI inflation rates are still above the central bank’s target in most of the G10, there is a strong incentive for policymakers to support the ‘higher for longer’ theme as higher “Market rates will help in the fight against inflation.” , Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank.
“However, investors are weighing this policy and appear to be more engaged about betting on the timing and pace of a rate cut next year.”
According to the CME FedWatch tool, market pricing indicates a roughly 23% chance that the Fed could begin easing monetary policy as early as March.
Elsewhere, the British pound hit a two-month high of $1.2627 against a weaker dollar, extending its gains from the previous week, data showed British companies unexpectedly closed in November after a three-month contraction. reported a modest rebound in growth.
“Recent PMI data in the UK was good, which means things are not as bleak as they looked,” Mizuho’s Asher said.
The pound was on track to gain about 3.8% this month, its biggest monthly gain since rising more than 5% in November last year.
The dollar fell 0.2% to 149.08 yen, while the euro rose 0.1% to $1.0941.
The Australian dollar climbed to a more than three-month high of $0.66 ahead of an RBNZ interest rate decision on Wednesday, while the kiwi rose 0.1% to $0.6091, with the central bank seen keeping rates unchanged at 5.5%. As they have been since the last adjustment in May.
In China, the yuan slipped after five consecutive sessions of strengthening at the official midpoint, with the onshore yuan standing at 7.1518 per dollar.
Its offshore counterpart fell 0.1% to 7.1579 per dollar.
before the market opens People’s Bank of China Set the midpoint rate, around which the yuan is allowed to trade in a 2% band, at 7.1159 per dollar, which is 8 pips weaker than the previous setting of 7.1151.
Release of a postponed OPEC+ meeting, federal ReserveA tracked measure of inflation along with consumer prices data. euro zone and Australia Fill out this week’s calendar, which will also see the Reserve Bank’s rate decision new zealand And Chinese PMI data.
The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, fell 0.2% to 103.22 and was headed for a monthly loss of more than 3%, its worst performance in a year.
“The expectation is that US rates have peaked, which suggests it’s time to get out of the dollar,” he said. Colin AsherSenior Economist at Mizuho Bank.
“US equities have completed four consecutive weeks of gains and this is also weighing on safe haven demand for the dollar,” Asher said.
Traders returning from the Thanksgiving recession last weekend kept an eye on the peak in US rates and turned their attention to when the first rate cut might occur, with the release of US core PCE prices this week indicating the Fed’s next rates. But there is a possibility of more signals. step.
Jane Foley said, “While CPI inflation rates are still above the central bank’s target in most of the G10, there is a strong incentive for policymakers to support the ‘higher for longer’ theme as higher “Market rates will help in the fight against inflation.” , Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank.
“However, investors are weighing this policy and appear to be more engaged about betting on the timing and pace of a rate cut next year.”
According to the CME FedWatch tool, market pricing indicates a roughly 23% chance that the Fed could begin easing monetary policy as early as March.
Elsewhere, the British pound hit a two-month high of $1.2627 against a weaker dollar, extending its gains from the previous week, data showed British companies unexpectedly closed in November after a three-month contraction. reported a modest rebound in growth.
“Recent PMI data in the UK was good, which means things are not as bleak as they looked,” Mizuho’s Asher said.
The pound was on track to gain about 3.8% this month, its biggest monthly gain since rising more than 5% in November last year.
The dollar fell 0.2% to 149.08 yen, while the euro rose 0.1% to $1.0941.
The Australian dollar climbed to a more than three-month high of $0.66 ahead of an RBNZ interest rate decision on Wednesday, while the kiwi rose 0.1% to $0.6091, with the central bank seen keeping rates unchanged at 5.5%. As they have been since the last adjustment in May.
In China, the yuan slipped after five consecutive sessions of strengthening at the official midpoint, with the onshore yuan standing at 7.1518 per dollar.
Its offshore counterpart fell 0.1% to 7.1579 per dollar.
before the market opens People’s Bank of China Set the midpoint rate, around which the yuan is allowed to trade in a 2% band, at 7.1159 per dollar, which is 8 pips weaker than the previous setting of 7.1151.
(TagstoTranslate)US Dollar(T)People’s Bank of China(T)OPEC+(T)New Zealand(T)Federal Reserve(T)Euro(T)Colin Asher(T)Chinese PMI(T)Australia