By Deep Kaushik Vakil
Nov 30 (Reuters) – Oil prices will face an upward struggle in 2024 as global growth risks, including China’s erratic economic recovery, dampen demand, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, even with expectations that OPEC+ may extend. production cuts
A survey of 30 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude LCOc1 would average $84.43 in 2024.
This is below the $86.62 projected by 40 respondents in October, with some analysts picking this month as they await the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday.
american raw CLc1 forecasts also dropped to $80.50 for next year, from $83.02 last month.
“Caught between geopolitical tail risks and bearish fundamentals, it’s hard for us to be bullish on crude oil,” said Florent Pele, commodities strategist at Societe Generale.
“With not many options left for OPEC+ to respond to potential demand weakness, we adjust our forecasts downward to reflect the emerging murkier demand picture.”
Demand growth forecasts for 2024 ranged from 0.5-2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), compared with the 1-2 million bpd forecast in September.
Benchmark Brent crude LCoc1 has fallen more than 15% since late September amid record US production and demand concerns, and has averaged around $82.50 a barrel this year.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia (OPEC+), which postponed its meeting last week due to disagreements among some producers, may extend or deepen production cuts to support prices.
“We still expect an extension of the unilateral Saudi and Russian cuts through at least Q1 2024, and unchanged group cuts, although deeper group insurance cuts are likely on the table,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.
Last week, the International Energy Agency said oil markets will see a slight supply glut in 2024 even if OPEC+ extends cuts.
“Finally, OPEC+ will not stop the trend of oil prices: and that is down!” said Frank Schallenberger, head of commodity research at LBBW.
Brent crude oil seen averaging below $85/bbl next year
Brent price forecasts
(Reporting by Deep Vakil and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Arpan Varghese and Sharon Singleton)
((DeepKaushik.Vakil@thomsonreuters.com;))
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