The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 22,120 level, a discount of almost 40 points from the previous close of the Nifty futures.
This is a holiday truncated week and the trading volumes are expected to be lower with limited market signals. However, volatility may remain high as we approach the end of March F&O and the financial year end.
On Friday, the domestic equity benchmarks closed higher for the third consecutive session.
The Sensex gained 190.75 points to close at 72,831.94, while the Nifty 50 settled 84.80 points, or 0.39%, higher at 22,096.75.
Nifty 50 formed a reasonably positive candle on the daily chart with a minor upper shadow.
“The market is facing strong resistance around 22,200 – 22,300 levels and a decisive break above this barrier could open the next round of sharp movement in the market. The Nifty on the weekly chart formed a small positive candle with a long lower shadow. The weekly support from the 10-week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) has recovered after the intra-week breach at 21,950. This is a positive indication,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.
He believes that the near-term trend of Nifty remains positive. A sharp move above the hurdle of 22,200 – 22,300 levels could pull Nifty to new all-time highs around 22,550 levels.
Read also: Indian stock market: 7 key things that changed for market over weekend – Gift Nifty, geopolitical tensions to oil prices
Here’s what to expect from Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Nifty OI Data
According to Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, options data shows some improvement, with the put-to-call ratio increasing from oversold levels to 1.23.
“However, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) maintain a high level of short exposure in index futures, currently at 65%. This elevated short position suggests that there is still potential for a short-covering rally,” said Meena.
Rahul Ghose, CEO, Hedged.in noted that the Bank Nifty index was seen with a massive write-down all the way from 46,000 to the 47,000 strike.
“The bullish bias is actually seen until the April expiration, where April ITM or In the money put writing was seen on Friday. Nifty on the other hand continues to be in a small range as per Open Interest (OI) data and the next move is only above the 22,300 mark or below the 21,700 mark on the downside,” Ghose said.
Read also: Buy or sell: Vaishali Parekh recommends three stocks to buy today — March 26
Nifty 50 Prediction
The Nifty 50 index continued with its next move on March 22 and closed the day higher by 84 points amid volatility.
“Nifty witnessed two days of recovery after forming a doji on the daily chart, indicating a bullish reversal. Moreover, the Nifty retook the critical 55-day exponential moving average. However, Nifty needs to cross above 22,100 to witness a clear rally towards the all-time high of 22,525,” said Rupak De, Chief Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.
On the lower end, 22,950 could remain strong support for the index. Below this level, the index could enter a consolidation phase, he added.
Read also: Buy or sell: Sumeet Bagadia recommends three stocks to buy on Tuesday – March 26
Bank Nifty Forecast
The Bank Nifty index rose 179 points to settle at 46,864 on March 22.
“The Bank Nifty index has seen robust buying from lower levels but has struggled to break the resistance at 47,000. Immediate support lies at 46,600-46,500, and as long as the index holds above this level, the outlook remains bullish. A breakout is expected above 47,000 will test sharp short-covering rallies to the 48,000 mark,” said De.
Disclaimer: The opinions and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or trading companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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Published: 26 Mar 2024, 07:28 IST