The ANC, which has ruled South Africa since the end of apartheid, may garner just 37% of the vote on May 29, while Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party, or MKP, may get 13%, the Social Research Foundation said in comments. sent to Bloomberg. on Wednesday, citing a poll it conducted this month. In the 2019 election, the ANC won 57.5% of the vote, its lowest share since taking power in 1994.
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Such a result may mean the ANC must form a coalition with a major rival to maintain control of Africa’s most industrialized economy and have to make concessions on policies and appointments. The ruling party may also force President Cyril Ramaphosa from office before he completes another five-year term – a prospect that has caused anxiety among investors. The leader of South Africa is elected by the National Assembly, which also has the power to dismiss him.
The rand fell as much as 1.9% against the dollar on news of the election findings, and was trading 1.7% lower at 18.7648 by 5:13 pm in Johannesburg.
Read more: Rand Plunges as Survey Shows Zuma Eating Into ANC Support
The SRF emphasized that the poll does not constitute a prediction of the election result, and that support for the MKP – which launched in December – has yet to settle.
“A lot can still change before May 29,” said Frans Cronje, the head of the SRF. The ANC may get a “late-stage boost” that can add two to three percentage points to its tally, he said.
Zuma ruled the country from 2009 to 2018, when the ANC forced him from office after a series of corruption scandals began to erode electoral support. While his decision to support the MKP has hurt the ANC, particularly in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal, the ruling party has drawn large crowds to its election rallies and has a campaign machinery that dwarfs that of all its rivals.
Methodology Questioned
Steven Friedman, a professor of politics at the University of Johannesburg, questioned the methodology used in polls that indicate support for the ANC has fallen below 40%, saying they do not take into account those people who refused to express an opinion or did not express an opinion. intend to vote The SRF said it was excluding those people from its investigations.
“I track municipal by-elections that are real people casting real votes,” and they show ANC support in the mid to high 40% range, Friedman said. “There are so many things that can skew the election results.”
The SRF poll of 1,835 registered voters across the country also found that the main opposition Democratic Alliance would win 25% of votes, the Economic Freedom Fighters 11% and the Inkatha Freedom Party 5%. The Freedom Front Plus, African Christian Democratic Party and Action South Africa would each receive 2%, it showed.
Already in mid-January, before it conducted its surveys, the SRF predicted that the MKP would receive only 1% to 2% of the national vote.
Corruption Scandals
The results of the survey are another indicator of the decline of the ANC amid corruption scandals, severe power outages, rampant crime and the collapse of basic services such as water supply.
The poll was based on an estimated turnout of 66% and has a 2.2% margin of error.
Provincial polls, also released by the SRF on Wednesday, showed the ANC would match the DA with 31% of the vote in Gauteng, the most populous and wealthiest region. In the Western Cape, the DA would remain the largest party with 54% support, compared to 20% for the ANC, while MKP would be the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal at 26%.
MKP would get most of its national support in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, the polls showed.
The SRF, a public-policy organization, was founded in 2021. Cronje, a former chief executive officer of the Institute of Race Relations, has consulted for South Africa’s largest political parties, companies and wealthiest people.
(Updates with SRF methodology in ninth paragraph, provincial election results from the 15th.)
More stories like this are available at bloomberg.com
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Published: 11 Apr 2024, 05:34 IST